WASHINGTON
(By
John Fritze, USA Today)
December 24, 2009 — Although a
decades-old population shift favoring
Sun Belt states slowed this year, the
South continues to seize political power
once held by the Northeast and Midwest,
Census Bureau estimates released
Wednesday show.
Eight states, including six in the South
and Southwest, would gain seats in the
House of Representatives if
apportionment were done today rather
than after the 2010 Census, according to
an analysis by the non-partisan Election
Data Services.
Texas would be the biggest winner,
adding three seats. In line to add a
seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada,
South Carolina, Utah and Washington.
Ohio would lose two seats, and Illinois,
Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts,
Michigan, New Jersey, New York and
Pennsylvania would each lose one.
"It's a continuation of the trend we've
seen before," said Kimball Brace of
Election Data Services.
In addition to affecting how more than
$400 billion in federal money is
distributed each year, the changes
reflected in the Census are also
reshaping the nation's political
landscape.
If the trends had been accounted for
last year, President Obama's Electoral
College margin over Republican John
McCain would have been 12 votes smaller.
In Congress, larger delegations mean
more committee seats, more lawmaker
requests for pet projects known as
"earmarks" and more clout when working
together on issues vital to their
states. Rep. John Carter, R-Texas, said
Lone Star lawmakers have been able to
win more federal transportation money
partly because they are a growing group.
"Larger delegations, if they stay
together … can have a real impact," said
Carter, who ran for a district north of
Austin created after Texas received two
more seats following the 2000 Census. He
sits on the influential House
Appropriations Committee.
The rise of Texas' influence has come at
the expense of states like Illinois.
David Phelps, a Democrat, was defeated
in 2002 after Illinois lost a House seat
and he had to run against another
incumbent in a new district. Phelps said
larger districts make it harder for
voters to connect with representatives.
"When they cut the district this big,
you don't get a district office or
someone you can access for problems,"
Phelps said.
Population estimates released a year
before the Census are often a reliable
predictor of the official count, Brace
said. Yet, this year, several states,
including Oregon and North Carolina, are
right on the edge of gaining a seat, he
said.
The 2010 Census data, which will be
released in early 2011, will represent
the first step in an often bitter
process of redrawing the boundaries of
congressional and legislative districts.
State lawmakers redraw the maps in most
states, a function that has raised the
stakes for the 2010 legislative
elections.
Redistricting fights already are shaping
up in such states as California, where
Democrats control the Legislature. If
the trends hold, California would not
gain any new House members — the first
time that has been the case since 1920.
"California's Golden State image has
certainly collapsed," said Douglas
Johnson, a fellow at the Rose Institute
at Claremont McKenna College. "People
aren't coming from other states, and a
lot of people are leaving."
